Stage 2-3L 70-84
Electoral Reversal
+4/yr
typical recovery velocity
Mechanism: Opposition wins election, institutions still function
Prerequisites: Free press exists, courts independent, civil society active
Timeline: 1-2 election cycles (4-8 years)
Success Case
🇵🇱 Poland 2023: Tusk coalition defeats PiS (+6 pts in 2yrs)
Stage 4L 52-69
External Conditionality
+6/yr
with EU/NATO pressure
Mechanism: Accession requirements force reform
Prerequisites: Credible membership path, elite buy-in for integration
Timeline: 5-10 years of sustained pressure
Success Case
🇸🇰 Slovakia 1998: EU conditionality ousts Mečiar (+35 pts)
Stage 5L 50-59 · USA HERE
⚠️ METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65–0.72 (scaled: ~65–72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.
Elite Defection / Mass Mobilization
+3/yr
if successful (rare)
Mechanism: Security forces refuse orders, or sustained mass protest
Prerequisites: Split in ruling coalition, economic crisis, international isolation
Timeline: Uncertain—depends on trigger event
Rare Success
🇬🇲 Gambia 2017: ECOWAS military intervention after Jammeh refuses loss
Stage 6-7L 25-49
Regime Collapse / Leader Death
Variable
unpredictable timing
Mechanism: System collapse, succession crisis, revolution
Prerequisites: Economic catastrophe, lost war, or leader mortality
Timeline: Decades—or never
Historical Example
🇷🇺 USSR 1991: System collapse enables brief democratization
⚠️ CLASSIFICATION NOTE: Zone velocities use ending-zone assignment (countries classified by period-end score). Starting-zone assignment yields materially different results (e.g., Tyranny Basin: +0.72/yr starting-zone vs −0.64/yr ending-zone). This sensitivity means zone velocity claims should be interpreted with caution. The "gravitational pull" narrative depends on the classification method chosen.
Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4Stage 5Stage 6-7100%50%0%Reversal Probability65%45%28%12%🇺🇸 USA6%EVENT HORIZON
FOR THE UNITED STATES (FEB 2026)
At Stage 5, the US faces a 3.0% recovery probability (95% CI: 0.7-6.0%); post-1995: 9.1%. No country this size has recovered from this position without either (a) external military intervention, (b) catastrophic economic collapse triggering elite defection, or (c) death/removal of the autocrat. The US lacks viable external pressure mechanisms—there is no "EU" to condition membership on reform. Recovery would require unprecedented internal mass mobilization or elite defection from the ruling coalition.