Governance Topology · Empirical Analysis 11 of 11
The Empirical Basin
Velocity and duration patterns from 91 countries across 225 years (1800-2025). The data confirms the tristable basin model: three attractor basins—the tyranny well and democratic plateau at the extremes, the hybrid trap in the middle where countries get stuck—and asymmetric transition dynamics.
91
Countries
1,656
Observations
225
Years (1800-2025)
+0.31
Mean Velocity/yr
±3.1
Std Deviation
MEAN VELOCITY BY ZONE (The Gravitational Pull)
⚠️ CLASSIFICATION NOTE: Zone velocities use ending-zone assignment (countries classified by period-end score). Starting-zone assignment yields materially different results (e.g., Tyranny Basin: +0.72/yr starting-zone vs −0.64/yr ending-zone). This sensitivity means zone velocity claims should be interpreted with caution. The "gravitational pull" narrative depends on the classification method chosen.
IMPORTANT: LOOK-AHEAD BIAS IN ZONE VELOCITY CALCULATIONS
The zone velocities shown below use ending-zone assignment: each country-year observation is classified by where the country ends up at the end of the measurement period. This introduces look-ahead bias -- countries that moved into a zone are counted in that zone's statistics even though they started elsewhere.
Starting-zone assignment (classifying by where the country was at the start of the period) yields materially different results across all zones:
The zone velocities shown below use ending-zone assignment: each country-year observation is classified by where the country ends up at the end of the measurement period. This introduces look-ahead bias -- countries that moved into a zone are counted in that zone's statistics even though they started elsewhere.
Starting-zone assignment (classifying by where the country was at the start of the period) yields materially different results across all zones:
- Tyranny Basin (L 0-19): Ending-zone = −0.64/yr (absorbing) vs. Starting-zone = +0.72/yr (escaping). The sign reverses entirely.
- Liberty Basin (L 80-100): Ending-zone = +0.25/yr vs. Starting-zone = −0.13/yr. Direction changes.
- Lower Ridge / Hybrid Trap: Both methods show positive velocity, but magnitudes differ.
Liberty Basin
L 80-100
+0.25
pts/yr mean
σ = 0.5 (very stable)
n = 191 obs
Upper Ridge
L 60-79
+1.42
pts/yr mean
σ = 3.4 (volatile)
n = 182 obs
Lower Ridge
L 40-59
+1.62
pts/yr mean
σ = 4.6 (most volatile)
n = 216 obs
Tyranny Slope
L 20-39
+0.75
pts/yr mean
σ = 3.0 (moderate)
n = 330 obs
Tyranny Basin
L 0-19
-0.64
pts/yr mean
σ = 2.5 (absorbing)
n = 646 obs
TOP 10 FASTEST DECLINES IN HISTORY (Velocity ≤ -8/yr)
| Rank | Country | Year | Liberty | Velocity | Relative Speed | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇲🇲 Myanmar | 2021 | L=5 | -25.0/yr | Military coup | |
| 2 | 🇰🇷 South Korea | 1961 | L=10 | -18.0/yr | Park Chung-hee coup | |
⚠️ METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65–0.72 (scaled: ~65–72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.
| ||||||
| 3 | 🇺🇸 United States | 2025 | L=48 | -18.0/yr | No coup—elite compliance | |
| 4 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 2013 | L=8 | -17.0/yr | Sisi coup vs Morsi | |
| 5 | 🇭🇺 Hungary | 1849 | L=8 | -17.0/yr | Habsburg crushing | |
| 6 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 1940 | L=55 | -17.0/yr | WWII emergency powers | |
| 7 | 🇨🇱 Chile | 1973 | L=5 | -15.7/yr | Pinochet coup | |
| 8 | 🇨🇿 Czechoslovakia | 1939 | L=5 | -15.0/yr | Nazi occupation | |
| 9 | 🇲🇱 Mali | 2021 | L=10 | -12.0/yr | Second coup | |
| 10 | 🇩🇪 Germany | 1933 | L=10 | -8.8/yr | Nazi seizure | |
EVENT HORIZON CROSSINGS (L 52-55 Threshold)
DOWNWARD CROSSINGS
15
total in dataset (1800-2025)
Recent (post-2000):
🇦🇷 Argentina 2001 (72→55, recovered 2005)
🇮🇩 Indonesia 2019 (65→58)
🇺🇸 United States 2025 (84→48)
🇦🇷 Argentina 2001 (72→55, recovered 2005)
🇮🇩 Indonesia 2019 (65→58)
🇺🇸 United States 2025 (84→48)
UPWARD CROSSINGS
53
total in dataset (1800-2025)
Recent (post-2000):
🇦🇷 Argentina 2005, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria 2005
🇬🇭 Ghana 2005, 🇮🇩 Indonesia 2010
🇷🇴 Romania 2005, 🇸🇳 Senegal 2025
🇦🇷 Argentina 2005, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria 2005
🇬🇭 Ghana 2005, 🇮🇩 Indonesia 2010
🇷🇴 Romania 2005, 🇸🇳 Senegal 2025
KEY COUNTRY TRAJECTORIES (Peak → Current)
WHAT THE DATA REVEALS
The US velocity (-18/yr) is historically unprecedented for a consolidated democracy. Every other case at this speed involved a military coup (Myanmar, South Korea, Egypt, Chile) or foreign invasion (Czechoslovakia, UK wartime). The US is achieving coup-level velocity through elite compliance alone—no tanks required.
The tristable model is confirmed: the Tyranny Well has negative mean velocity (-0.64/yr), pulling countries deeper. The Democratic Plateau is stable (+0.25/yr, σ=0.5). The Event Horizon ridgeline is where the action is—highest volatility (σ=4.6), where small pushes create large movements. The US has fallen off this ridgeline and is accelerating downhill.
The tristable model is confirmed: the Tyranny Well has negative mean velocity (-0.64/yr), pulling countries deeper. The Democratic Plateau is stable (+0.25/yr, σ=0.5). The Event Horizon ridgeline is where the action is—highest volatility (σ=4.6), where small pushes create large movements. The US has fallen off this ridgeline and is accelerating downhill.
⚠ Temporal Comparability Note
This analysis combines data from three distinct source periods with different measurement methodologies: author estimates (pre-1972), original Freedom House scoring (1972-2005), and revised FH methodology (2006-2025). Era-specific sensitivity analysis largely confirms the pooled results. See fh-sensitivity-results.md for details.
Source: Governance Topology Master Database · 91 countries, 1,656 observations, 1800-2025 · Velocity = ΔL/Δt between consecutive observations · Zone means weighted by observation count · Data derived from Freedom House (1972+), V-Dem (1789+), Polity5 (1800+)