Governance Topology Index: Methodology
Technical documentation for the quantitative framework underlying the Governance Topology Project
The Ternary Constraint
The Governance Topology framework rests on a foundational assumption: political power within any state is distributed among three competing forces — Liberty, Tyranny, and Chaos — as a zero-sum system. At any point in time, these three components sum to 100.
This ternary constraint creates a triangular coordinate system (a simplex) within which every country can be positioned at any given year. Movement across this space represents regime change, institutional erosion, or democratic consolidation.
| Component | Source | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty (L) | Freedom House | Direct mapping from FH aggregate score (0–100 scale) |
| Chaos (C) | Fragile States Index | Inverted and normalized to 0–100 scale |
| Tyranny (T) | Computed | Residual: T = 100 − L − C |
Tyranny is computed as a residual rather than measured directly. This means T absorbs measurement error from both L and C. Any systematic bias in Freedom House or FSI scoring will propagate into the Tyranny estimate. This is an acknowledged limitation of the current framework.
The Tristable Basin Model
The Governance Topology framework models political systems as occupying one of three attractor basins — regions in the ternary space toward which systems tend to evolve and within which they tend to remain. The depth and shape of each basin determines how easily a country can transition between states.
Democratic Plateau
A self-reinforcing equilibrium maintained by institutional redundancy. Multiple overlapping constraints on power — independent judiciary, free press, competitive elections, civil society — make democratic backsliding difficult even when individual institutions come under pressure.
Hybrid Trap
The shallowest attractor basin. Countries in this zone maintain some democratic forms (elections, partial press freedom) while experiencing significant institutional capture. They face constant gravitational pull toward either the Democratic Plateau or the Tyranny Well.
Tyranny Well
The deepest attractor basin. Power is concentrated in a narrow elite with minimal institutional constraints. Self-reinforcing through suppression of alternatives. Once captured, escape is exceedingly rare.
The Event Horizon marks the liberty score threshold below which democratic recovery becomes extremely rare. Named by analogy to the point of no return around a black hole, this zone represents the boundary between the Democratic Plateau and the gravitational pull of the Tyranny Well.
The Eight-Step Progression
The framework identifies a sequential model of institutional erosion that traces the path from democratic norm violation to consolidated autocracy. Each step represents the capture or neutralization of a specific institutional constraint on executive power.
- Norm Erosion — Institutional guardrails violated without consequence
- Information Capture — Media landscape captured through ownership, pressure, and disinformation
- Judicial Capture — Courts packed, neutralized, or intimidated
- Legislative Subordination — Legislature becomes rubber stamp for executive
- Regulatory Capture — Independent agencies politicized, oversight dismantled
- Civil Society Suppression — NGOs restricted, protest curtailed, academic freedom constrained
- Electoral Manipulation — Competitive elections undermined through structural advantages
- Constitutional Consolidation — Formal legal framework rewritten to entrench power
For the full interactive model with leading and lagging indicators for each step, see the Eight-Step Progression interactive model.
Data Sources & Coverage
The Governance Topology framework synthesizes data from four primary sources, each contributing distinct dimensions of governance measurement.
PTI vs. Published Indices
The Governance Topology Index (PTI) is a real-time institutional assessment score developed by CGL. It is designed to complement — not replace — established indices such as Freedom House and V-Dem.
Key differences from published indices:
- The PTI updates faster than annual publications, incorporating institutional developments as they occur.
- It weights institutional constraint erosion more heavily than traditional indices, which tend to emphasize electoral outcomes and civil liberties.
- This faster updating and different weighting can produce score divergence from Freedom House and V-Dem, particularly during periods of rapid institutional change.
Methodological note: Users should always evaluate PTI claims under both the PTI score and established indices. Where significant divergence exists, both perspectives should be considered before drawing conclusions.
Audit & Replication
The Governance Topology Project has undergone a rigorous 4-phase independent audit examining statistical claims, data integrity, model validity, and replication. All analysis code and data are publicly available.
Limitations
The following limitations should be considered when interpreting results from the Governance Topology framework:
- Python standard library only. The independent audit was conducted using only Python's standard library (no NumPy, SciPy, or statsmodels). This constrains the statistical sophistication of audit replication but ensures maximum reproducibility.
- Thesis's own data only. The audit evaluated the framework using only the data provided by the thesis, without incorporating external validation datasets.
- AR(1) simplification. The first-order autoregressive model used as the primary benchmark is itself a simplification. Higher-order or non-linear models may capture dynamics the AR(1) misses.
- Small N for US-specific claims. Claims about the United States rest on a single case study (N=1). While cross-national patterns are informative, direct extrapolation from the global model to any single country should be treated with appropriate caution.