48
Global Mean
Liberty Score
34%
Countries
Rated "Free"
19
Consecutive Years
of Decline
3.0%
Recovery Rate
Below Event Horizon
5
Claims Refuted
by Audit
Where to Begin

Recommended Reading Path

New to Governance Topology? Read the executive summary first →

1

The Tristable Basin

Understand the three attractor basins — liberty, tyranny, and chaos — that govern every political trajectory.

2

The Eight-Step Pathway

The sequential erosion pathway from democracy to tyranny, with empirical stage durations and momentum indicators.

3

US Current Position

Where the United States stands in February 2026 — liberty score, stage classification, and velocity of change.

4

The Sovereign Spread

How credit markets price democratic erosion — and why they are systematically late to reprice governance risk.

5

Thesis Audit Synthesis

What survives independent scrutiny — a claim-by-claim assessment of the framework’s empirical foundations.

Explore

All Series

Model

10

Core basin model, stability wells, escape velocity, eight-step pathway, state transitions, and empirical validation.

US Case

8

America’s current position, 225-year trajectory, velocity analysis, probability cone, and intervention points.

Evidence

17

The global democratic recession, country profiles (China, India), comparative trajectories, regional analysis, the great decoupling, and data explorers.

Stakes

11

How credit markets price democratic erosion: bond vigilantes, sovereign spreads, the price of tyranny, and central bank independence.

Maps

14

Global liberty, event horizons, capable autocracies, velocity of decline, and regional deep dives.

Graphics

23

Autocrat survival curves, kingmaker dynamics, thresholds, capital flight, and opposition networks.

Audit & Data

10

Thesis audit synthesis, methodology, canonical parameters, model diagnostics, downloads, and glossary.

Browse All

Complete Table of Contents

Model

  1. The Tristable Basin
  2. Stability Wells
  3. Escape Velocity
  4. The Eight-Step Pathway
  5. Eight Steps (Economist Edition)
  6. State Transitions & Probabilities
  7. The Empirical Basin
  8. Stage Duration & Momentum
  9. The Game of Three Players
  10. Model Summary

US Case

  1. Current Position (Feb 2026)
  2. 225 Years of Development
  3. Velocity of Change
  4. Probability Cone 2026–2040
  5. What Levers Remain?
  6. Reversal Factors
  7. USA Timeline
  8. Early Warning Dashboard

Evidence

  1. The Global Democratic Recession
  2. China: The Absorbing State
  3. India: At the Ridgeline
  4. Comparative Trajectories
  5. Seven Regions, Seven Stories
  6. The Great Decoupling
  7. Event Horizon × Capabilities
  8. Liberty vs. Capabilities
  9. Data Explorer: 195 Countries
  10. Data Explorer: 225 Years
  11. Data Explorer: 48 Countries
  12. Ternary Phase Space
  13. Historical Trajectory Explorer
  14. Falling Faster
  15. The Cliff
  16. Two Paths
  17. Where They Stand

Stakes

  1. Executive Synthesis
  2. When Bond Vigilantes Sleep
  3. Four Roads From Ruin
  4. Central Bank Independence
  5. The American Exception
  6. Sovereign Credit Market Note
  7. The Sovereign Spread
  8. China: The Debt Trap
  9. The Price of Tyranny
  10. The Great Divergence
  11. The Autocracy Discount

Maps

  1. Global Liberty 2025
  2. Event Horizon
  3. Capable Autocracies
  4. Democratic Recession
  5. Six Frames
  6. Velocity of Decline
  7. Europe Fracture Lines
  8. Asia-Pacific
  9. Africa & MENA
  10. Population-Weighted
  11. Rich States, Captive Peoples
  12. Attractor Basins
  13. Autocrat’s Playbook
  14. Map Synthesis

Graphics

  1. Autocrat’s Survival Calculus
  2. Kingmaker’s Choice
  3. The Threshold
  4. Capture Sequence
  5. Event Horizon
  6. Coup Outcomes
  7. Third Wave
  8. Winning Coalition
  9. Legislature Capture
  10. Capital Flight
  11. Opposition Suppression
  12. International Response
  13. Youth Bulge
  14. Religious Institutions
  15. Stages: Democracy to Tyranny
  16. Ternary Coordinates
  17. The Three Vertices
  18. Attractor Dynamics
  19. Event Horizon & Recovery
  20. Transition Matrix
  21. Time in the Unstable Middle
  22. Two Failure Modes
  23. Intervention Timing

Audit & Data

  1. Thesis Audit Synthesis
  2. Methodology
  3. HCI Framework: 15 Indicators
  4. Canonical Parameters
  5. Volatility Calibration
  6. Model Diagnostics
  7. Downloads & Data
  8. Glossary
  9. About CGL
  10. Stakeholder Graphics
Resources

Downloads

Data Files

Documents

Replication Code

Graphics

Reference

Resources

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