Academic Papers

Theoretical frameworks, empirical analysis, and methodological documentation. Suitable for citation in academic work.

A01Theory

Tristable Dynamics in Governance Systems

Core theoretical paper establishing the three-state attractor basin model: liberty, tyranny, and chaos. Foundation for understanding governance as a dynamical system with stable equilibria.

A02Theory

Event Horizons in Political Transitions

Analysis of governance tipping points and critical thresholds where systems transition between stable states. Quantifies the "point of no return" in democratic erosion.

A03Economics

The Great Decoupling: Growth Without Freedom

Research on the decoupling between economic development and governance quality. Examines when and why economic growth diverges from political freedom, with implications for China and capable autocracies.

A04Economics

Governance Yield: Credit Risk and Political Quality

Study of the relationship between governance quality and economic returns in sovereign debt markets. Quantifies the "governance premium" in bond yields.

A05Theory

Eight-Stage Model of Democratic Erosion

Detailed sequential model of the eight stages of political development and governance transitions, mapping the predictable path from consolidated democracy to autocracy.

A06Theory

Path Dependence in Governance Systems

Analysis of how historical choices constrain future governance trajectories. Explains why some countries can reverse democratic erosion while others cannot.

A07Methodology

Dataset Construction and Sources

Complete documentation of dataset construction, data sources, and quantitative measures. Essential for replication and validation of findings.

A08Analysis

Autocrat Survival Calculus

Research on authoritarian regime survival strategies. Examines how autocratic leaders maintain power and the conditions that lead to regime collapse.

A09Methodology

Human Capabilities Index (HCI)

Documentation of the Human Capabilities Index measuring human development through education, health, and economic factors. Complements governance measurements.

A10Economics

Reserve Currency Status and Governance

Analysis of the relationship between reserve currency status and governance quality. Examines the USD's position and implications for future transitions.

Executive Summaries & Market Analysis

Accessible reports for investors, policymakers, and journalists. Contemporary analysis and practical implications.

M01Contemporary

State of Global Liberty 2025

Current assessment of global political freedom and liberty trends as of 2025. Snapshot of the worldwide governance landscape with regional breakdowns.

M02Policy

The Great Decoupling: Policy Brief

Policy-oriented analysis of the economic-governance decoupling phenomenon, with implications for investors and policymakers navigating capable autocracies.

M03Policy

Eight Steps to Tyranny

Practical guide identifying the eight sequential steps authoritarian regimes follow when consolidating power. Early warning system for democratic backsliding.

M04Market

When the Bond Vigilantes Sleep

Analysis of bond markets as governance discipline mechanism. How sovereign debt markets respond to governance deterioration and why market signals are lagging political reality.

M05Case Study

The American Exception

Examination of the United States as exceptional case in governance topology. Analyzes America's unique position, current trajectory, and historical parallels.

M06Policy

The Autocrat's Survival Calculus

Simplified analysis of autocratic decision-making frameworks and survival strategies for general audience. How authoritarian leaders think about power consolidation.

M07Visual

Atlas of Political Freedom

Visual atlas mapping global political freedom across countries and time periods using governance topology framework. Designed for storytelling and visual journalism.

M08Regional

Regional Deep Dives

Detailed regional analyses examining governance patterns within specific geographic areas including Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Europe.

M09Case Study

China: The Governance-Debt Nexus

Focused analysis on China's governance model and its relationship to debt accumulation and economic stability. Critical for understanding systemic risks.

M10Meta

Thesis Audit: Critical Examination

Critical audit of the governance topology thesis, examining supporting and contradicting evidence. Essential for skeptical readers and academic reviewers.

M11Methodology

Methodology Overview

Comprehensive methodology documentation for general audience. Explains how governance measurements and analyses are conducted in accessible language.

M12Market

Sovereign Credit Market Note

Technical note on sovereign credit markets and their interaction with governance quality indicators. Practical guide for bond investors and credit analysts.