Transition Probability Surface — Governance Topology

Stage 1Stable Democracy (85-100)

Stage 2-3Functioning Democracy (70-84)

Stage 4Flawed Democracy (60-69)

Stage 5Hybrid Regime (50-59) — US

Stage 6Competitive Autocracy (40-49)

Stage 7Closed Autocracy (25-39)

Stage 8Failed State (0-24)

Attractor Basins: Stage 1 (89% stay), Stage 7 (86% stay), and Stage 8 (98% stay) are stable attractors — once you're there, you tend to stay.
The Unstable Middle: Stages 4-6 have the lowest self-persistence (60-77%), creating a turbulent zone where countries are most likely to transition.
Asymmetric Transitions: Movement down (toward autocracy) is more common than recovery. From Stage 5, you're 8x more likely to decline than to improve.
The Event Horizon: Stage 5 is the critical threshold. Below this, gravitational pull toward Stage 8 increases dramatically.
Autocracy Trap: Once at Stage 7 or 8, recovery is nearly impossible (2% transition probability). These are terminal states.

The Topology of Political Transitions