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A Cambridge Governance Labs Research Initiative
Every regime has coordinates.
Every trajectory has odds.
Quantitative frameworks for mapping democratic erosion, forecasting regime trajectories, and pricing sovereign risk.
A unified framework connecting political topology, predictive trajectory modeling, and sovereign credit dynamics.
Mapping every nation's governance as ternary coordinates — Liberty, Tyranny, Chaos — revealing the geometry of political systems and the attractor basins that trap them.
Eight-step erosion models, event horizon thresholds, and Monte Carlo projections transforming political observation into probabilistic forecasts with testable predictions.
Political signals lead market responses by decades. Connecting governance erosion to sovereign spreads, yield curves, and the repricing events markets refuse to anticipate.
The Central Thesis
For two centuries, political liberty and human development moved in lockstep. Nations that freed their citizens prospered; nations that didn't, stagnated. The correlation was an article of democratic faith.
That faith is now empirically wrong.
The correlation between political freedom and human capabilities has fallen from r = 0.79 before 1900 to r = 0.57 after 1990. Capable autocracies now outnumber free democracies for the first time in modern history.
Governance Topology quantifies this decoupling — mapping the attractor basins that trap hybrid regimes, the event horizons past which democratic recovery becomes statistically impossible, and the sovereign credit repricing that markets have not yet begun to price.
This is not political commentary. It is measurement. Every regime has coordinates. Every trajectory has odds. And every erosion, eventually, has a price.
Full publication and interactive research tools launching 2026
Launching 2026Book cover concept