9
Liberty Score
Stable since 2021
Ternary Coordinates (L + T + C = 100)
Liberty
5
▼ 5 from 10 (2010)
Tyranny
87
▲ 7 from 80 (2010)
Chaos
8
▼ 2 from 10 (2010)
THEORETICAL BASIS — TERNARY CONSTRAINT (L + T + C = 100)
The ternary constraint models political power as a zero-sum allocation across three modes: Liberty (distributed power with institutional constraints), Tyranny (concentrated power), and Chaos (fragmented/contested power). The constraint holds definitionally when T is computed as the residual (T = 100 − L − C), which the author acknowledges as a measurement limitation rather than an independent empirical confirmation. L is measured via Freedom House aggregate scores and C via the Fragile States Index. Future work should develop independent T measures (e.g., executive concentration indices) to test the constraint empirically.
STAGE 7–8: CONSOLIDATED AUTOCRACY / NEAR-TOTALITARIAN
No elections · No opposition · No independent media · No civil society · No judicial independence · One-party state with personal rule
98%
stay probability
Political CompetitionELIMINATED
CCP has ruled without interruption since 1949. No opposition parties, no competitive elections, no mechanism for power transfer outside the Party. Xi abolished presidential term limits in 2018.
Evidence: FH Political Rights sub-score: −2/40. Xi secured unprecedented third term (2022). No succession mechanism established.
Information ControlTOTAL
Great Firewall blocks access to global internet. All domestic media state-controlled or state-aligned. Social media platforms subject to real-time censorship. AI-powered content moderation at scale.
Evidence: FH Freedom on the Net score: 9/100 (worst globally, 10 consecutive years). 1M+ content removals announced in early 2025 alone.
Judicial IndependenceNON-EXISTENT
Courts operate as instruments of Party policy. CCP Political-Legal Affairs Commission directs judicial outcomes. Anti-corruption campaigns used to purge rivals. Defense lawyers routinely detained.
Evidence: Conviction rate exceeds 99%. Human rights lawyers disbarred or imprisoned. No judicial review of Party decisions.
Civil SocietyDECIMATED
Independent NGOs effectively eliminated. Foreign NGO law (2017) placed all international organizations under police supervision. Labour activism criminalized. Religious practice severely restricted.
Evidence: Uyghur detention programme. Tibetan cultural erasure. House church crackdowns. #MeToo movement suppressed. Feminist activists detained.
Surveillance ApparatusCOMPREHENSIVE
World's most extensive digital surveillance infrastructure. Social credit system operational. 600M+ CCTV cameras with facial recognition. Real-name registration for all internet use.
Evidence: Skynet/Sharp Eyes networks cover all urban areas. WeChat monitoring pervasive. Predictive policing in Xinjiang expanded nationally.
Transnational RepressionMOST PROLIFIC
China is the world's most prolific perpetrator of transnational repression. Operations span intimidation, rendition, surveillance, and coercion of diaspora communities across 36+ countries.
Evidence: Freedom House Transnational Repression Report 2025. Overseas "police stations" documented. Coercion of family members to compel return.
85.9
Human Capabilities Index
Rank: ~35th globally
THE GREAT DECOUPLING — IN ITS PUREST FORM
China is the defining case study of the Great Decoupling thesis: the breaking of the historical correlation between human development and political liberty. With an HCI of 85.9 — comparable to Southern Europe — China demonstrates that high literacy, life expectancy, technological capacity, and economic complexity can coexist with near-total political repression. The CCP has invested in capability precisely to maintain control: a prosperous, educated population that accepts the bargain of material advancement for political quiescence. This refutes the modernization hypothesis that economic development inevitably produces democratization.
LIBERTY SCORE TRAJECTORY: 1800–2025
L≈52-551006030100180018501900195020002025Republic (1912)L=12 (peak)CCP takeover(1949) L=5Tiananmen(1989) L=8Xi eraL=5China has never crossed the Event Horizon.Peak Liberty: 12 (Republic, 1912). Never above 15.
LIBERTY SCORE COMPARISON: Stage 7–8 Countries (2025)
05101520🇰🇵 North KoreaL=1🇪🇷 EritreaL=2🇨🇳 ChinaL=5🇸🇾 SyriaL=6🇷🇺 RussiaL=7HCI: 85.9 — highest in this group by 30+ pointsRussia HCI: 80.5 · Syria: 42 · N. Korea: ~35 · Eritrea: ~22
CLINICAL ASSESSMENT
China is not a country in democratic decline — it is a country that never democratized. The ternary trajectory shows Liberty has never exceeded 12, and has been locked below 10 since 1949. In the tristable model with its three attractor basins — the democratic plateau, the hybrid trap, and the tyranny well — China sits at the absolute floor of the tyranny well, where the stay probability is 98% per year. There is essentially zero probability of movement even toward the hybrid trap, let alone the democratic plateau.

What makes China uniquely significant is the Great Decoupling: an HCI of 85.9 combined with Liberty of 5. The modernization hypothesis — that prosperity drives democratization — finds its clearest falsification here. China has built the world's second-largest economy, produced a middle class of 400 million, achieved near-universal literacy, and a life expectancy above 78 — all while tightening political control under Xi Jinping. China has never approached the critical instability zone (the Event Horizon at L≈52-55) — its peak Liberty of 12 remains far below even the hybrid trap's gravitational pull.

The model assigns <2% probability of meaningful liberalization within any foreseeable horizon. The only historical precedent for exit from Stage 8 is exogenous regime collapse (Soviet Union 1991), not endogenous reform. China's trajectory is not a warning — it is the destination: the tyranny well toward which eroding democracies are falling, though many will stabilize in the hybrid trap before reaching China's depth.