Velocity of Decline
Not just how far countries have fallen, but how fast. Velocity — points per year of Liberty lost — reveals which democracies are in freefall and which are slowly eroding. The United States is losing freedom at 3.1 points per year, faster than any country in the dataset.
−3.1
US velocity (pts/yr)
−2.3
Turkey velocity
−2.0
Nicaragua velocity
+1.1
Armenia (fastest gain)
67
Countries in negative velocity
−3.1/yr−2.0−1.00+0.5+1.1/yr
Fastest declines — pts/year, 2010–2025
Notable gains
Three speed tiers of democratic erosion: "Freefall" states (USA, Turkey, Nicaragua) lose more than 2 points per year — at this pace, a consolidated democracy collapses within a single generation. "Rapid erosion" (Hungary, Mali, Venezuela) loses 1–2 per year. "Slow decay" affects most of Europe at −0.1 to −0.4 per year — imperceptible in any single year, but compounding over decades.
METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65–0.72 (scaled: ~65–72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.
CLASSIFICATION NOTE: Zone velocities use ending-zone assignment. Starting-zone assignment yields materially different results (e.g., Tyranny Basin: +0.72/yr starting-zone vs −0.64/yr ending-zone). This sensitivity means zone velocity claims should be interpreted with caution.