Europe's Fracture Lines

The continent that invented modern democracy now exhibits a four-speed liberty gradient. The Nordics hold firm. Western Europe slowly erodes. Eastern Europe splits. And the southeastern flank — Turkey, Serbia, Hungary — is in rapid decline.
94
Nordic mean
88
Western mean
58
Eastern mean
48
Balkans+ mean
10
Russia
−4.8
Europe mean Δ
0 — Autocracy
100 — Full Liberty
Europe's biggest movers, 2010 → 2025
Nordic Shield
94
Mean Liberty
−0.3
Mean Δ
Norway 97, Finland 96, Denmark 95, Estonia 93, Ireland 93, Sweden 93
Western Core
88
Mean Liberty
−3.3
Mean Δ
Netherlands 93, Germany 91, Portugal 91, Belgium 90, Austria 88, UK 87↓, Czech Rep 85, Spain 85, France 83↓, Italy 82
Eastern Divergence
58
Mean Liberty
−5.0
Mean Δ
Poland 82, Romania 74, Bulgaria 66, Hungary 63↓↓, Moldova 55↑, Ukraine 35, Belarus 5
Southeastern Collapse
48
Mean Liberty
−15.7
Mean Δ
Greece 79, Serbia 48↓, Turkey 18↓↓↓
Russia + Caucasus
10
Russia
−12
Δ
Armenia 42↑, Georgia 38↓↓, Russia 10↓
Two stories define Europe in 2025. First, the "Orbán effect": Hungary (−21) proved that EU membership is no guarantee against autocratisation. Turkey (−34) and Serbia (−10) followed the same playbook. Second, the quiet counter-trend: Moldova (+7), Estonia (+2), and Ireland (+1) show that democratic consolidation remains possible even as neighbours decline.