Africa & MENA: The Frontier

The world's most dynamic political region. Home to the fastest democratisers (Senegal, Tunisia) and the steepest collapses (Mali, Egypt). Botswana remains Africa's lone "Free" nation. The Middle East is the least free region on Earth, with zero countries scoring above 55.
27
Combined mean L
−2.5
Mean Δ
1
Free (Botswana)
18
Not free
60
Senegal ↑
3
Sudan (lowest)
0 — Autocracy
100 — Full Liberty
Sub-Saharan Africa
29
Mean Liberty
−2.6
Mean Δ
17
Countries
Botswana 71 · Ghana 68 · S.Africa 62↓ · Senegal 60↑↑ · Kenya 40 · Nigeria 38 · Morocco 30 · Tunisia 22↑ · Ethiopia 18 · Algeria 18 · DRC 15 · Rwanda 10 · Zimbabwe 10 · Mali 8↓↓↓ · Somalia 8 · Egypt 5↓↓ · Sudan 3
Middle East & North Africa
21
Mean Liberty
−2.3
Mean Δ
7
Countries
Israel 60↓↓ · UAE 22 · Jordan 20 · Lebanon 15↓↓ · Syria 12↑ · Libya 8 · Saudi Arabia 7
Senegal
60
+8
Tunisia
22
+8
Mali
8
−23
Egypt
5
−15
S. Africa
62
−10
Israel
60
−12
Senegal is the story of democratic possibility. Rising from 52 to 60 (+8) while its neighbours collapsed, Senegal crossed the Event Horizon in the right direction — proving that democratic consolidation is possible in the Sahel. Its peaceful 2024 transition of power stands in stark contrast to Mali's military coups.
The Arab Spring's legacy is almost entirely erased. Egypt (5), where it began, is now deeper in autocracy than before the revolution. Only Tunisia (+8) retains any gains, and even those are fragile. The MENA region has zero "Free" countries — Israel, once the sole outlier, has fallen to 60 and slipping.