Asia-Pacific: Two Futures
The world's most populous region presents its starkest contradiction: three vibrant democracies (Taiwan, Japan, South Korea) anchoring the Pacific rim, while China, Myanmar, and Cambodia consolidate the deepest autocracy on the continent. In between, the giants — India and Indonesia — are sliding.
35
Asia-Pac mean L
−5.7
Mean change
3
Free
11
Not free
91
Taiwan ↑
3
Afghanistan
0 — Autocracy100 — Liberty
2010 → 2025 change: Asia-Pacific movers
Democratic Anchor
Consolidated democracies holding steady or improving
New Zealand 96 · Australia 92 · Taiwan 91↑ · Japan 89 · South Korea 83
The Contested Middle
Partly free and eroding — where the battle is fought
India 62↓↓ · Indonesia 50↓ · Singapore 47↑ · Malaysia 45↑ · Philippines 42↓
Autocratic Consolidation
Deep autocracy — declining or at floor
China 5 · Myanmar 5 · Cambodia 8 · Vietnam 9 · Iran 7 · Afghanistan 3
Freefall
Losing >1 pt/year — fastest regional erosion
Cambodia −1.1/yr · Thailand −1.1/yr · Bangladesh −1.1/yr · India −1.0/yr
Bright Spots
Countries moving toward freedom
Taiwan +6 · Singapore +7 · Malaysia +7 · Sri Lanka +2
India is the story. With 1.4 billion people, India's slide from 77 to 62 represents the single largest population mass moving toward autocracy. If India crosses the Critical Instability Zone (L=52-55), nearly half of all people in the Asia-Pacific will live under autocratic rule. Meanwhile, Taiwan's rise to 91 — surpassing Japan — shows democratic deepening in the shadow of an authoritarian giant is possible.