The Autocrat's Playbook: How Democracies Die in Eight Steps
Democratic erosion follows a remarkably consistent pattern. Whether in Budapest, Ankara, Managua, or Washington, aspiring autocrats deploy the same sequence of moves — not as a conspiracy, but because the institutional vulnerabilities they exploit are universal. Each step makes the next one easier. Each step is harder to reverse than the last.
8
Steps in the pattern
12
Countries mid-playbook
5–15
Years, start to finish
3
Reversed mid-course
1
Polarise the Electorate
L 85–95 → L 75–85 · "Still democratic"
Exploit cultural divisions. Frame politics as existential. Erode trust in shared institutions, media, and opposing parties. Create an us-vs-them narrative that makes compromise seem like betrayal.
US 2015–2018 (94→83) · Hungary 2010–2012 · Turkey 2007–2011 · India 2014–2017
Policies: culture-war legislation, "fake news" rhetoric, partisan media ecosystems
2
Attack the Referees
L 75–85 → L 65–75 · "Democracy under stress"
Undermine courts, election commissions, inspectors general, and oversight bodies. Replace neutral arbiters with loyalists. Reframe accountability as persecution.
US 2018–2020 · Hungary 2012–2014 · Turkey 2011–2013 · Poland 2015–2018
Policies: court packing, firing IGs, defunding oversight, "deep state" narratives
3
Capture Key Institutions
L 65–75 → L 55–65 · Approaching Event Horizon
Install loyalists in civil service, intelligence, military, and regulatory agencies. Politicise the bureaucracy. Create parallel power structures that bypass institutional checks.
US 2021–2023 · Hungary 2014–2016 · Turkey 2013–2016 · India 2019–2022
Policies: Schedule F, loyalty tests, purging career officials, NER (Hungary)
4
Rewrite the Rules
L 55–65 → L 45–55 · Crossing the Event Horizon
Change electoral laws, redraw districts, restrict voting access, alter constitutional provisions. Make it structurally harder for the opposition to win power through legitimate means.
US 2023–2025 (65→48) · Hungary 2016–2018 · Turkey 2016–2017 · Nicaragua 2014–2016
Policies: gerrymandering, voter ID, constitutional amendments, supermajority capture
5
Silence Independent Media
L 45–55 → L 35–45 · Below Event Horizon
Use regulation, taxation, ownership changes, and legal harassment to defund, discredit, or absorb independent media. Consolidate friendly outlets into a propaganda ecosystem.
Hungary 2018–2020 · Turkey 2015–2018 · Venezuela 2007–2012 · India 2022–2025
Policies: media ownership consolidation, SLAPP suits, foreign-agent laws, ad boycotts
6
Criminalise Opposition
L 35–45 → L 20–35 · "Competitive authoritarian"
Use legal systems to prosecute, jail, exile, or disqualify opposition leaders. Weaponise corruption charges, terrorism statutes, and tax codes against political opponents.
Nicaragua 2018–2021 · Turkey 2016–2020 · Venezuela 2015–2018 · Russia 2011–2014
Policies: political trials, party bans, exile, asset seizures, protest criminalisation
7
Eliminate Electoral Competition
L 20–35 → L 10–20 · "Electoral autocracy"
Disqualify candidates, ban parties, control the electoral commission, rig counts. Maintain the theatre of elections while removing any possibility of power transfer.
Russia 2014–2020 · Venezuela 2018–2022 · Cambodia 2017 · Nicaragua 2021 · Belarus 2020
Policies: candidate disqualification, rigged commissions, "managed democracy"
8
Consolidate Total Control
L 10–20 → L 0–10 · "Closed autocracy"
Abolish term limits, eliminate remaining civic space, control all state institutions, project power through fear. The system becomes self-sustaining — maintained not by consent but by coercion.
China (5) · Cuba (7) · Russia 2022+ (10) · Iran (7) · Saudi Arabia (7) · Belarus (5)
Policies: constitutional rewrites, disappeared persons, total media control, security state
Six countries, one playbook — how fast they fell
The US is at Step 4 — and accelerating. From 94 in 2010 to 48 in 2025, the United States has traversed the first four steps of the playbook in roughly 10 years. It crossed the Event Horizon between 2023 and 2025. Historical precedent from Turkey, Hungary, Nicaragua, and Venezuela shows that once Step 5 begins (media silencing), reversal becomes statistically improbable without external intervention or regime change.
METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65–0.72 (scaled: ~65–72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.
Three countries reversed mid-course. Poland (2023, L rose from 72 to 82), Moldova (2021, 48→55), and South Korea (2017, restored from 78 to 83) demonstrate that the playbook is not inevitable — but all three reversed before crossing the Event Horizon. No country in the dataset has reversed after completing Step 5.