The State of the World: Democracy at an Inflection Point
Fifteen years of data tell a single, unambiguous story: the global democratic order that expanded from 1989 to 2010 is in systematic retreat. The decline is not a cycle, not a blip, and not confined to fragile states. It has reached the heart of the Western alliance.
48
Global mean Liberty
down from 53 in 2010
down from 53 in 2010
72%
Countries declining
66 of 91 fell since 2010
66 of 91 fell since 2010
71%
World population
in "Not Free" states
in "Not Free" states
8%
Recovery rate below
the Event Horizon
the Event Horizon
−46
US decline (94→48)
steepest without a coup
steepest without a coup
Finding I
The recession is structural, not cyclical
72% of countries declined since 2010. The mean fall was −7.2 points. Only 8 countries gained more than 5 points. This is a global pattern driven by institutional capture, media consolidation, and the weaponisation of democratic norms.
Finding II
The critical instability zone is real — and rarely crossed back
Below Liberty 55, recovery drops to single digits. Of 50 countries that fell below this threshold since 1989, only 4 recovered. The US entered the critical instability zone in 2024. India, Israel, and South Africa hover just above.
Finding III
The American collapse changes everything
The US fell further, faster, from a higher starting point than any country in the dataset — without a coup, invasion, or civil war. Its decline removes the hemispheric anchor and alters the global balance of democratic power.
Regional Liberty scores: 2010 vs 2025
"Democracy doesn't die in darkness.
It dies in broad daylight, one institutional norm at a time,
while the people who could stop it argue about whether it's really happening."
It dies in broad daylight, one institutional norm at a time,
while the people who could stop it argue about whether it's really happening."
— Governance Topology Project, 2025
What comes next. Three scenarios: (1) continued erosion toward tyranny wells and fragile democracies; (2) stabilisation in hybrid trap zones, with democracy surviving in a shrinking Northern club; or (3) reversal — which has happened before (1989, 1945, 1918) but always required a catalytic crisis.
METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65–0.72 (scaled: ~65–72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.