Editorial Note: This document separates empirical findings from normative assessment. Policy implications and advocacy statements are collected in the dedicated section at the end.
Governance Topology · US Deep Dive 4 of 10
United States: February 2026
The first G7 democracy to score below the Event Horizon threshold. Current ternary coordinates place the US in the hybrid trap zone (Stage 5) near the Event Horizon ridgeline, with the fastest descent velocity recorded for a consolidated democracy in the modern dataset. The tristable model identifies three attractor basins: the democratic plateau, the hybrid trap, and the tyranny well.
⚠️ METHODOLOGY NOTE — PTI SCORE DIVERGENCE
The PTI score of L=48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ~0.65-0.72 (~65-72 scaled). The divergence reflects (a) the PTI's faster update cycle, (b) weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and (c) incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All thesis claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices. See Sensitivity Analysis below.
48
Governance Topology Index
▼ 36 pts (2yr)
Ternary Coordinates (L + T + C = 100)
Liberty
48
▼ 36 from 84 (2023)
Tyranny
38
▲ 29 from 9 (2023)
Chaos
14
▲ 7 from 7 (2023)
THEORETICAL BASIS — TERNARY CONSTRAINT (L + T + C = 100)
The ternary constraint models political power as a zero-sum allocation across three modes: Liberty (distributed power with institutional constraints), Tyranny (concentrated power), and Chaos (fragmented/contested power). The constraint holds definitionally when T is computed as the residual (T = 100 − L − C), which the author acknowledges as a measurement limitation rather than an independent empirical confirmation. L is measured via Freedom House aggregate scores and C via the Fragile States Index. Future work should develop independent T measures (e.g., executive concentration indices) to test the constraint empirically.
STAGE 5: ELECTORAL AUTOCRACY
Elections exist but cannot produce alternation · Opposition legal but cannot win · Courts captured · Media controlled
HYBRID TRAP ZONE
3.0%
recovery probability (95% CI: 0.7-6.0%); post-1995: 9.1%
Executive ConstraintsSCORED BELOW THRESHOLD
Constitutional checks weakened significantly. Impoundment of appropriated funds. Removal of inspectors general. Court orders challenged without enforcement consequences.
Evidence: DOGE operating outside statutory authority; Schedule F implementation bypassing civil service protections; DOJ investigations of political opponents
Evidence: Presidential immunity ruling; state AGs prosecuting election officials; Jan 6 defendants pardoned en masse
Electoral IntegrityCOMPROMISED
Documented voter access restrictions in multiple states. Gerrymandering entrenched. Officials questioning election integrity in key positions. Challenges to certified results increasingly common.
Evidence: State-level election board purges; restrictive voting laws in 23 states; threats to election workers causing mass resignations
Press FreedomUNDER PRESSURE
Patterns of delegitimization targeting mainstream media. License revocation threats. Defamation suits increasing. Self-censorship reported by multiple outlets.
Evidence: FCC threats to broadcast licenses; journalist visa revocations; advertiser pressure campaigns against critical outlets
Civil SocietyTHREATENED
NGOs facing funding cuts and investigations. Universities under pressure. Professional associations self-censoring. Chilling effect on dissent.
Evidence: DEI program eliminations; USAID funding freeze; IRS audits of activist organizations
Elite ComplianceHIGH
Business leaders largely silent or supportive. Republican officials maintaining alignment. Institutional resistance limited. Normalcy bias widely observed.
Evidence: Tech CEOs at inauguration; Fortune 500 statements muted; former critics endorsing administration
VELOCITY COMPARISON: US vs Historical Cases
NOTE — ZONE VELOCITY CLASSIFICATION SENSITIVITY
Zone velocities are calculated using ending-zone assignment (countries classified by where they end each period). Starting-zone assignment yields different results (e.g., Tyranny Basin: +0.72/yr under starting-zone vs -0.64/yr under ending-zone). This classification sensitivity means zone velocity claims should be interpreted with caution. Both methods are reported in the full methodology.
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT
Under the PTI methodology, the United States records the fastest democratic decline of any consolidated democracy in the modern dataset. The velocity of -18 points/year (2023-2025) exceeds Tunisia's post-2019 decline by 60%. The most probable near-term destination, based on historical transition rates, is stabilization in the hybrid trap — durable low-quality governance at Stages 5-6. Full descent to the tyranny well (Stage 7-8) would require continued acceleration. If current trends continue, the model projects extended hybrid-regime governance. See Policy Implications below for normative assessment.
Source: Freedom House Freedom in the World 2025; V-Dem Democracy Report 2025; Author's real-time tracking based on policy implementation, court rulings, and institutional indicators · Velocity calculated as 3-year moving average annual FH change
Policy Implications & Normative Assessment
The following normative assessments are separated from the empirical analysis above. They reflect the author's interpretation of the data and should be evaluated independently from the statistical findings.
The velocity and positional data presented above suggest that established mechanisms of democratic self-correction may be insufficient at the current stage. The author interprets the convergence of executive constraint erosion, judicial alignment, and elite compliance as indicating a structural shift rather than a cyclical fluctuation. If this interpretation is correct, the United States could face an extended period of hybrid-regime governance, with consequences for civil liberties, institutional independence, and democratic accountability. Countervailing factors — including federalism, civil society capacity, and economic leverage of democratic-leaning states — represent potential stabilization forces not fully captured by the PTI's aggregate score.