Editorial Note: This document separates empirical findings from normative assessment. Policy implications and advocacy statements are collected in the dedicated section at the end.
⚠️ METHODOLOGY NOTE — PTI SCORE DIVERGENCE
The PTI score of L=48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ~0.65-0.72 (~65-72 scaled). The divergence reflects (a) the PTI's faster update cycle, (b) weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and (c) incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All thesis claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices. See Sensitivity Analysis below.
94
Peak Score (2010)
48
Current Score (2026)
-46
Drop from Peak
175
Years to Build
2
Years of Decline
10080604020THRESHOLDZONE18001860187719201964199020102025SlaveholderRepublicCivilWarJim CrowProgressiveCivil RightsConsolidationDeclinePEAK: 94Civil War48-36 pts2 yrs
Democratic exclusion/regression
Crisis/conflict
Democratic expansion
KEY INFLECTION POINTS
1865
Civil War nadir
L=30, lowest pre-2025
1920
Women's suffrage
L rises to 55
1964-65
Civil/Voting Rights Acts
L crosses 60, begins climb
2010
Peak consolidation
L=94, all-time high
2016
First Trump term begins
L begins decline: 94→90
2021
Jan 6 insurrection
L=86, norms disrupted
2024
Immunity ruling + reelection
Institutional constraints reduced
2025
Below-threshold zone entered
L=48, Stage 5 reached
OBSERVED ASYMMETRY IN TRAJECTORY
It took 175 years (1800-1975) for the United States to climb from L=42 to L=72 (crossing the "Free" threshold). Under the PTI, the score fell from L=84 to L=48 in 2 years (2023-2025) — reversing approximately 60 years of measured gains. This asymmetry — slow construction, rapid decline — is consistent with patterns observed in complex institutional systems. See Policy Implications below for normative interpretation.

Policy Implications & Normative Assessment

The following normative assessments are separated from the empirical analysis above. They reflect the author's interpretation of the data and should be evaluated independently from the statistical findings.

The asymmetry between democratic construction and decline observed in the US trajectory carries significant normative weight. The 175 years of institutional building now at risk represent not merely statistical movement on an index, but the cumulative product of constitutional amendments, civil rights legislation, and institutional norm-setting. In the author's assessment, the speed of recent decline — if the PTI scoring is accepted — suggests that institutional safeguards built for gradual erosion may be inadequate against rapid, coordinated executive action. This interpretation implies that democratic resilience may require structural reforms (such as statutory codification of norms previously maintained by convention) that go beyond the existing constitutional framework. However, readers should note that under published indices (FH 83, V-Dem ~0.65-0.72), the decline is substantially less dramatic, and established institutional channels may remain more viable.