Governance Topology: The Argument in Five Minutes
A compact executive summary of the tristable attractor model of democratic governance
Political regimes are not points on a left-right spectrum. They occupy positions in a three-dimensional phase space — liberty, tyranny, and chaos — governed by attractor dynamics. Using data from 91 countries over 225 years (1,656 observations), we can model these dynamics quantitatively.
Three attractors compete for every polity:
- Liberty basin (L > 80): Self-reinforcing democratic institutions. 34% of countries.
- Tyranny basin (L < 40): Self-reinforcing authoritarian control. 31% of countries.
- Chaos zone (L 40–80): Unstable. Outcomes depend on velocity and direction.
Global democracy has declined for 19 consecutive years. The mean global liberty score is 48. Below a critical threshold — the event horizon at approximately L = 52–55 — the probability of self-correction drops to 3.0% (95% CI: 0.7–6.0%).
Erosion follows a predictable eight-step pathway, from democratic stress signals through institutional capture to consolidated autocracy. An AR(1) model with data-driven volatility outperforms all stage-based models (ΔAIC > 300).
Credit markets are systematically late to reprice governance risk. The bond vigilantes are asleep.
This framework was subjected to a five-phase independent audit. Key thesis claims — including the original P(tyranny by 2040) = 62% — were retracted based on data-driven recalibration. The AR(1) model with data-driven σ produces a median trajectory from L=48 to L=65 (converging toward equilibrium L*=80.9). See the full Thesis Audit Synthesis for details.